After Kherson, Ukrainian military considers march south and east

A lot of attention is now shifting to the southern front, less than 100 miles north of the Sea of ​​Azov, where Ukrainians are eager to sever the “land bridge” linking mainland Russia to Crimea, which Russia invaded and illegally annexed in 2014 . Kiev is also planning to liberate the cities of Melitopol and Ernekhodar, where the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is located.

In turn, Russian forces are digging into stronger defensive positions, apparently in anticipation of a fight.

“Everyone is talking about Zaporozhye. Everyone,” said Konrad Muzyka, president of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based military analysis firm.

But for all logical speculation, roads and military positions near the front line show little sign of a troop build-up or that the Ukrainians intend to launch an offensive in the Zaporozhye region anytime soon, Muzyka and other analysts said.

Victor Dadak, 35, deputy battalion commander for Ukrainian territorial defense, would not say whether the country’s military would launch its next major offensive here. “It’s a military secret,” Dadak said. “But I think military secrets will be leaked in a few days.”

Rumors of an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region circulated for weeks last summer. Instead, there was a sudden lightning strike in the area northeast of Kharkiv.

At present, Ukrainian soldiers in the Zaporozhye region appear to be in a state of waiting – waiting in a muddy environment for the ground to freeze.

It was the coldest day yet for Ukrainian soldiers stationed here, and Dadak noticed the ground was starting to harden on the first day, he said. But the dirt is still slick enough for military vehicles to slide and get stuck. Dadak said he expects their vehicles to gain more traction in the coming weeks.

About a mile from the front line, Dadak walked across a field toward a group of soldiers who took cover in the only place they could hide—a thin row of bare trees that offered little protection from the biting wind. The bright sun is deceiving; temperatures drop to near freezing. Soldiers took turns warming in a bomb shelter with a wood-burning stove, which had just enough room for two cots.

Their main task was to hold defensive positions behind the front lines and prevent Russian forces from advancing northward on the highway connecting the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions.

But Dadak said the long-term goal is to push south into the Sea of ​​Azov. If the momentum is right, Ukrainian forces could encircle forces east of the Dnieper after surrendering the city of Kherson and the West Bank towns.

According to rough intelligence estimates, about 30,000 Russian troops are stationed on the eastern bank of the Kherson River, Dadak said.

But the challenges ahead are daunting. The ground was even muddier than in the Kherson area, Dadak said. And, after abandoning the city of Kherson, Russia has redistributed its troops to the east, strengthening its presence in Zaporozhye. Dadak and his soldiers say the shelling has intensified since then.

Russia has increased troop density, meaning it has more troops per square mile than it did when the war began, Muzyka said. “So if the Ukrainians attack, it won’t be easy,” Muzka said.

While the relatively flat terrain and absence of rivers in the Zaporozhye region would make it easier for Ukraine to push south, it would also leave fewer hiding places for troops.

“I think the Ukrainians are probably looking at a couple of areas where they might fight back,” Muzyka said. “Zaporizhzhia is the most obvious, which probably means it might not happen there.”

Michael Koffman, a Russian military analyst with the Center for a New American Security, a Virginia-based research organization, said one of the Ukrainian military’s long-term goals appears to be to push south to capture Melitopol.

Koffman said the Russian military had been preparing for a Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhye since the summer. However, the Ukrainians launched an offensive in Kharkov and Kherson, west of the Dnieper.

“Whether they can do it later in the winter or sometime next spring is still a big question,” Coffman said.

A second wave of troops is trying to push back Russian forces in the Luhansk region as Ukraine tries to stabilize the defenses of the battered city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

The question is whether the Ukrainian army has the troops and artillery ammunition available to launch a southern offensive in the coming months, especially after the Kherson battle casualties.

The Ukrainian town closest to the front line appeared to be all but deserted for much of the day, with residents emerging from their bunkers only during a brief pause in the morning Russian shelling. In the town of Huliaipole, known as the birthplace of Ukrainian anarchist revolutionary Nestor Makhno, a missile attack on the city hall killed the town’s deputy mayor and one of his aides about a month and a half ago. Another recent strike destroyed a large public library, leaving it in ruins.

A few steps away, bags of sand surround a statue of Makhno, protecting it from shelling.

Dadakh has seen the Russians using more helicopters here than ever before, he said. A nearby unit recently acquired rockets whose sole purpose was to shoot down Russian helicopters.

Four Ukrainian soldiers stationed a mile behind the front line said the roar of mortars and artillery nearby had become more frequent, and the Post agreed to name only them because of security risks.

“This is how we are, day and night,” said Vladimir, a soldier who plans to go to the front on Thursday, his 47th birthday. He said the shelling had intensified since the liberation of Kherson, smoking a cigarette in a dark and cramped bunker.

With temperatures dropping, Volodymyr said he’s not worried about winter. The military has been stockpiling warming gear for soldiers, he said. “The most important thing is to have a cold winter, not a muddy winter,” he said.

Maybe then, the soldiers said, they could see some movement.

“Kherson’s momentum has boosted our morale and hopefully we can do something similar here,” said Ihor, 36, another soldier.

But Serhii, 26, said he didn’t know if that would happen in the next few weeks.

“We could be here all winter,” Serhii said.