Goldman Sachs Says Humanoid Robot Like Tesla Bot Could Be a $150 Billion Business

Humanoid robots, like the recently introduced Tesla robot, could become a $150 billion-a-year business over the next 15 years, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.

The idea of ​​robots taking over the rough jobs and reducing labor costs has been around for a long time, but it has been given a different meaning.

Robots have taken over many tasks and jobs, but we’re talking about robots that are purpose-built and programmed for specific tasks — not the general-purpose humanoid robots that science fiction sold us.

But every now and then, there’s a resurgence of humanoid robots, and a few companies gather around projects, like the Honda Asimo.

Now, Tesla is leading another renaissance in humanoid robots with its Tesla Bot project, and this one feels different because Tesla seems to be committed not only to delivering new robots, but also to putting its manufacturing capabilities behind them, Makes its Tesla Bot an actual widely available product.

Goldman Sachs, which has been eyeing a Tesla-led revival of humanoid robots, today released a new report on the market’s early investment case.

The company estimated in the report that the humanoid robot market could be worth $154 billion by 2035 — or comparable to the electric car market — a prediction made by Tesla CEO Elon Musk himself.

Goldman Sachs wrote in the report:

The launch of Tesla’s humanoid robot prototype, Optimus Prime, has reignited debate about the financial opportunity for this innovation. The investment case for humanoid robots is considerable – we estimate the market could reach at least $6 billion in 10 to 15 years, filling $4 of the U.S. manufacturing labor shortage by 2030 and $2 of global pension needs by 2030 %. 2035E.

The company also described its “blue sky scenario”:

If barriers to product design, use cases, technology, affordability, and widespread public acceptance are fully overcome, we project a market size of $152 billion in a blue sky scenario by 2035 (close to the global EV market and a – by 2021 accounting for one-third of the global smartphone market in 2018), suggesting that labor shortages such as manufacturing and pensions can be largely addressed.

Interestingly, while Goldman Sachs acknowledged that Tesla was behind the renaissance of humanoid robots, the firm instead suggested investing in suppliers of motion components to capitalize on this new market.

Electrek’s take

I’m not against this analysis, but I might be more optimistic.

I agree with the general consensus that Tesla’s September prototype wasn’t impressive, but that’s partly due to the company’s focus on ways to build robots for mass production.

I think this approach will lead to rapid improvements in the field of humanoid robotics.

I can see Tesla Bot reaching a worthy usability level in the next 4-5 years, and in 10 years it will definitely reach the level of a general-purpose robot that can perform a wide range of tasks on command.

I think it’s really possible, so it could lead to a blue sky scenario for Goldman Sachs a few years before 2035.

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