In recent days, independent news outlets have published photos of what appears to be the remains of Iranian-made drones used to strike targets in Ukraine, questioning Iran’s repeated denials of supplying its ally Russia with such weapons. Pentagon officials have also publicly confirmed the use of Iranian drones in Russian airstrikes and that Ukraine successfully shot down some of the drones.
Tehran sent officials to Russia on September 18, a clear sign of Iran’s expanding role as a military supplier to Moscow. Terms for additional weapons shipments, including two types of Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, will be finalized on Monday, according to U.S. allied officials who closely monitor Iran’s weapons activities.
An intelligence assessment shared with Ukrainian and U.S. officials in recent days says Iran’s arms industry is preparing the first shipments of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, two of Iran’s well-known short-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting missiles at 300 and 700 range. Two officials with knowledge of the matter said separately. If implemented, it would be the first delivery of such missiles to Russia since the war began.
The officials spoke on condition that their names and nationalities not be revealed, because intelligence-gathering is extremely sensitive.
In August, the same officials identified two types of Iranian drones, the Muhajer-6 and Shahed-136, that Tehran began supplying to Russia for use in Ukraine. Both types of remains have been recovered, analyzed and photographed by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks. Russia appears to have repainted the weapons and gave them Russian names.
Iran is also preparing to deliver new drones to Russia, including “dozens” of additional Mujaher-6s and more Shahed-136s, officials briefed on the planned missile shipments said. The latter, sometimes referred to as “kamikaze” drones because they are designed to impact targets, are capable of delivering explosive payloads at distances of up to 1,500 miles. Iranian technical advisers have visited Russian-controlled areas in recent weeks to provide instructions on operating the drones, officials said.
US intelligence agencies It declined to comment on reports of Iranian shipments to Russia. Russian and Iranian officials did not respond to requests for comment on reports of a Russian missile attack on Iran on Saturday.
On March 3, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Qanini reiterated that Iran has always denied any involvement in the supply of drones to Russia. “The Islamic Republic of Iran considers reports of the delivery of drones to Russia for use in the Ukraine war ‘baseless’ and has not confirmed them,” he said. Qaani reiterated Iran’s claim of neutrality in the conflict, stressing that “both sides need to Solve their problems politically and avoid violence.”
A Ukrainian official told The Washington Post that the government in Kyiv had been briefed on the evidence behind the new intelligence. Ukraine’s separate assessment said that most of Russia’s recent deployment of drones in southern Ukraine were Iranian-made.
Ukraine recently downgraded diplomatic relations with Tehran in response to the presence of Iranian-made drones on the battlefield. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week urged NATO countries to provide Ukraine with advanced air defense systems, citing recent Russian airstrikes.
“We need to protect our skies from Russian terror,” Zelensky said in a speech to the European Commission on Thursday.
Like Iran, Russia has objected to Western reports that Iran was delivering weapons for its Ukraine campaign, a claim that Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov derided as “false.”
But Ukrainian officials say Iranian drones have been successful, destroying several Ukrainian tanks and damaging civilian infrastructure in repeated attacks over the past three weeks. The arrival of surface-to-surface missiles could provide Russia with a powerful new weapon, missile experts say, at a time when Kyiv’s forces are retaking occupied territory in large swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine, in part thanks to artillery provided by the West.
“The development from drones to surface-to-surface missiles could give the Russians more options and more hits,” said Fazinadimi, an Iranian weapons expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Washington think tank.
Iran has one of the largest and most diverse short- and medium-range missile arsenals in the Middle East. While Iranian weapons designers have struggled with reliability issues, experts believe the latest versions of the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar are both effective and fairly accurate at relatively short ranges, Nadimi said. Some models are equipped with electro-optical guidance systems that allow missile operators to guide them towards the final target.
Iran has previously supplied the same missiles to proxy militias in the Middle East, most notably the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis displayed Iranian-designed missiles at the military parade and used them to hit oil refineries and other civilian targets in the Gulf neighbor.
Russia already has a range of unarmed air vehicles, or drones, mainly used for surveillance and artillery reconnaissance. But Moscow has not invested in the kind of large fleet of armed drones that U.S. forces routinely use in operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Moscow did have a large stockpile of precision-guided missiles and rockets at the start of the Ukrainian invasion, but U.S. officials say its stockpiles have been drastically reduced over the course of the war and are now in their seventh month.
During Friday’s briefing, U.S. intelligence officials cited Russia’s growing reliance on Iran and North Korea as evidence of the impact of sanctions and export controls imposed by the West in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.
Speaking to reporters, officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said Russia had lost more than 6,000 pieces of equipment since the war began and was “consuming ammunition at an unsustainable rate.”
Unable to obtain Western electronics due to sanctions, Russia is “seeking supplies and equipment from countries such as Iran and North Korea,” including drones, artillery and rockets, the report said.