- Nicole made landfall in Florida as a hurricane Thursday morning.
- Coastal flooding, strong winds, heavy rain and tornadoes are expected along the southeast coast.
- Flooding, strong winds and some tornadoes are possible in the rest of the east Friday into early Saturday.
Nicole made landfall in Florida as a hurricane Thursday morning, but its effects, including prolonged coastal flooding, beach erosion, strong winds, high waves, heavy rain and tornadoes, will continue to affect the rest of the Southeast and the mid-Atlantic and northeast to work Week ends.
At 3 a.m. ET, Nicole’s center was advancing south of Vero Beach, Florida. It has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, making Nicole a Category 1 hurricane.
Now that Nicole is inland, it has weakened to a severe tropical storm.
Nicole just Fourth hurricane makes landfall in continental U.S. in November In records dating back to the mid-19th century, and for the first time in 37 years.
current state
Radar showed a swirling band of soaking rain in northern and central Florida this morning.
(tomorrow: Live Update | photo)
According to the National Hurricane Organization, Nicole’s high wind field means tropical storm strong winds (39 mph or greater) extend west, north and east of the center, including much of the Florida peninsula, off the coast of Georgia and the South Carolina Coastal Regional Center analysis is below.
Winds of 70 mph or higher were recorded along Florida’s Atlantic coast, including Playa Linda Beach (73 mph), Cape Canaveral (71 mph) and Melbourne (70 mph).
NOAA’s tide gauges reported a storm surge of more than 5 feet in Port Canaveral, Florida this morning, causing severe coastal flooding.
Warnings and Precautions
All hurricane warnings have been discontinued as Nicole has weakened to a tropical storm.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for large areas of southern, central and northern Florida, southern Georgia and the South Carolina lowlands.
Cities under tropical storm warnings include Orlando, Fort Myers, Tampa and Tallahassee in Florida, Savannah in Georgia and Charleston in South Carolina.
A storm surge warning in effect from Jupiter Bay, Florida to Greene County, Georgia Sko County goes north to Wakula County. That means dangerous, life-threatening coastal flooding is expected in these areas.
forecast impact
Nicole is expected to continue weakening today as it curls northwest over Florida.
It will then be picked up by a cold front that will turn the storm northeast on Friday and over the southeastern states. The remaining energy and moisture from Nicole will work with the cold front to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the East Coast through Saturday.
Current state, predicted path
(The red shaded area indicates the potential path of the tropical cyclone center. It is important to note that the effects of any tropical cyclone (especially heavy rain, high waves, coastal flooding, high winds) will often extend beyond their predicted path.)
Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from Nicole. Keep in mind that Nicole’s large size means that its effects will travel farther away from its center, arrive sooner than channels in its center, and last longer.
Storm surge, coastal flooding, beach erosion
Sustained onshore winds will cause coastal flooding in some areas through Thursday or Friday along parts of the southeastern coast from Florida to the Carolinas.
The National Hurricane Center’s peak storm surge forecast (if it occurs at high tide) is shown below.
Given the multiple high tide cycles of coastal flooding and high waves on storm surges, severe beach erosion and infrastructure damage are expected in parts of Florida’s east coast and Georgia coast.This is especially true for East Florida coast damaged by Hurricane Ian late September.
Some moderate to severe coastal flooding is also possible as far north as South Carolina, including Charleston, which is expected to peak at high tide Thursday morning. During this peak storm surge, widespread street flooding is possible in the city.
An exception to this general situation is part of Florida’s western Gulf Coast.
Tides will start much lower than normal due to winds blowing offshore.
But by late Thursday, Water levels may rise rapidly Once Nicole’s center moves north, the wind turns to land. This could cause some coastal flooding and storm surges in the areas pictured below to peak Thursday night, but also through Friday.
Strong tropical storm winds (39 mph or greater) will continue to spread across much of the Florida peninsula Thursday.
These strong winds are expected to disrupt power and possibly bring down trees, especially near the coast.
While Nicole will weaken, some strong winds are likely to hit parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia by Friday.
Nicole’s remnant cold front and stronger jet stream energy are likely to generate strong winds in the northeast Friday night through Saturday morning, from the Delmarva Peninsula and north of the Chesapeake Bay into New England, especially near the coast.
Those gusts could cause scattered tree damage and cause some power outages at least Friday through Saturday.
rainfall
Heavy rain has reached Florida, and it should spread north to parts of Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday.
Parts of central and northern Florida are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall, including some areas flooded by Hurricane Ian’s rain.
Holy part. The Johns River is still above flood level after Ian rained about six weeks ago. According to the NWS, St. The Johns River’s slow decline in recent weeks after Ian will transition to a slow rise before stabilizing above the flood stage after Nicole’s rain.
Some minor river flooding is also expected along the Peace and Little Manatee Rivers in western Florida, with record flooding during Ian. But this flood will be nowhere near the scale of Ian’s flood.
Nicole’s wetness combined with an incoming cold front will cause heavy rain Friday through Saturday in the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and northeast.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 5 inches is possible from parts of southern Florida to the Carolinas, Georgia, the mid-Atlantic and the northeast, with higher local rainfall.
This can lead to localized flash floods and some river flooding, especially in the Appalachian Mountains and adjacent foothills, and parts of the Northeast.
tornado
As with most landfall storms, some isolated tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm gusts are also possible for Nicole’s rainbands from Thursday through Friday.
See the schedule below.
-Thursday to Thursday night: Northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
– Friday-Friday night: Central and eastern Carolina into the mid-Atlantic.
Storm review so far
Nicole intensified into a hurricane Wednesday night as it made landfall in Grand Bahama. Winds of 61 mph were recorded on the island on Wednesday night.
Huge pounding waves and coastal flooding are affecting much of the southeast coast.The water level has reached the target About 2 feet above normal Along Florida’s Atlantic coast, with high tide Wednesday morning.
Flooding was reported around houses on Anastasia Island near St. Petersburg.Augustine, on some streets West Palm Beach, Wednesday. St Petersburg’s storm surge broke through the sea wall. Lucy County near Jensen Beach.beach erosion destroy a structure and Eat in a parking lot or hotel on the coast of Daytona Beach.
Video of storm surge flooding was also captured on Wednesday morning Marsh Harbour, in the Abaco Islands of the Bahamas, hit by Hurricane Dorian in 2019. According to the Bahamas Meteorological Service, winds of up to 60 mph were recorded in Hope Township.
Light street flooding was also reported in Charleston, South Carolina, before and after high tide early Wednesday.
Connect with us at weather.com for important updates about Nicole.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.