Week 15 is not good for my picks. In fact, it was one of the worst weeks of my season.
Ouch.
The hot streak of the last month ends here. But it’s Christmas week, which means the best gift I can give everyone is a bunch of winners – which is what I’m going to do.
But first, a look back at last week’s disaster. As part of the Pick-Six podcast, I went 11-5 with my straight picks, 5-10-1 with my Spread Expert picks, and 1-3-1 with my best bets. PS: My two best bets are the Patriots — thanks to the crazy ending — and the Saints — thanks to the two-point conversion.
This brings my record straight up to 136-87-1, 101-114-9 ATS and 47-36-5 my best bet.
With three weeks left, it’s time to pack it up. Or coal is getting in my socks.
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV)
featured games | Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Ravens could have brought back Lamar Jackson. They need him in the worst possible way. The passing game is tough. It might help, though, that the Falcons have defensive issues. Desmond Ridder played well in his first start last week and now faces a tougher defense. The Ravens won.
Pick: Ravens 26, Falcons 13
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV)
featured games | Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
In terms of playoff impact, this is a big game for both teams. The Lions play back-to-back road games, which will be a challenge. Carolina’s loss to the Steelers last week looked terrible. The Lions’ defense against Carolina is a serious challenge, and that will be the difference in the game. The lion keeps rolling.
Pick: Lions 27, Panthers 17
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
featured games | Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are trying to lock down the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, and the Bears are in play. But the Bills face the Bengals next week after beating the Dolphins. This looks like a sandwich game. Will not. If the Bills keep rolling, Josh Allen will give the Bills a ton of points.
Pick: Bills 37, Bears 21
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
featured games | Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints
Both are alive in the playoffs, but neither can afford to lose again. That makes this game a big one for both sides. The Browns haven’t been great offensively with Deshaun Watson back at quarterback, but this could be the game to keep it going. Look for the Browns to win it.
Pick: Browns 23, Saints 16
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV)
featured games | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Chiefs are winning games, but they haven’t played well in the past few weeks. Seattle has also struggled in the past few games. It’s a must-win game for them, but it’s a tough place to play. There are major issues with their defense, and if Patrick Mahomes lights them up, those issues will be here.
Pick: Chiefs 35 points, Seahawks 21
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV)
featured games | Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants
The Vikings have locked up their division, while the Giants are vying for the wild card spot. The Giants are playing back-to-back road games, while the Vikings have an extra day off. Minnesota’s defense is a major concern, though, which is why the Giants will hang around in this game. It was close, but the Vikings took it.
Pick: Vikings 27, Giants 26
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
featured games | New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are playing back-to-back road games, but the Patriots are suffering from last week’s crushing loss to the Raiders. The Tigers have some defensive injuries, but the Patriots have issues on offense. If the Bengals win, look for Joe Burrow to continue to play well.
Pick: Bengals 30, Pats 17
Saturdays at 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
featured games | Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
If the Titans don’t turn things around, they’re in danger of missing the playoffs. The Texans have played much better in recent weeks, but this will be a challenge for a team that desperately needs it. The Titans will correct what’s wrong here with a solid performance from Derrick Henry.
Pick: Titans 23 points, Texans 21
Saturdays at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
featured games | San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
It’s been a rough ride for Washington, a team that will have four extra days off. Washington has struggled offensively, which is never a good thing for the NFL’s best 49ers team. Looking for a defense to shine again, Brock Purdy did enough to earn it.
Pick: 49 people 25, commander 14
4:25 p.m. ET Saturday (Fox, fuboTV)
featured games | Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles will likely start Gardner Minshew here for the injured Jalen Hurts. It changes the way they attack. The Cowboys defense has looked terrible the past two weeks, but I think something has changed here. They’ll go after Minshew without a quarterback running with him in the game. Cowboys won.
Pick: Cowboys 33, Eagles 25
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
8:15 p.m. ET Saturday (NFL Network, fuboTV)
featured games | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This is another matchup between two teams with little playoff hope. The Raiders had a stunning win over the Patriots, while the Steelers beat the Panthers on the road. Kenny Pickett should be back here to play for the Steelers, that’s a big deal. Pittsburgh’s defense will get the best of Derek Carr. The Steelers take it.
Pick: Steelers 24, Raiders 16
Sunday 1pm ET (Fox, fuboTV)
featured games | Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers were alive after Monday night’s win, but it’s been a tough turnaround in just one week. The Dolphins have lost three straight, but they played better last week. It’s going to be a shootout, with the Packers staying close as Aaron Rodgers and Tuata Goviloa put on a show.
Pick: Dolphins 31, Packers 30
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+)
featured games | Los Angeles Rams vs. Denver Broncos
Considered a big game by many, it delivered two of the most disappointing games of the year. Both teams have offensive issues. The Broncos have a better defense and Russell Wilson will be back. The Rams also played very short minutes. But some say the Rams have found a way to win it.
Pick: Rams 21, Broncos 14
Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fuboTV)
featured games | Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Those two had big questions, but the Buccaneers were still in first place when the Cardinals finished the game. Arizona could be played by third-team quarterback Trace McSorley against last week’s leading Buccaneers. Tom Brady has struggled, but I think he’ll do well here. Pirates take it.
Pick: Bucks 24, Cardinals 20
Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fuboTV)
featured games | Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Colts finished with a 33-point lead in a loss that could end the year. They will also be without running back Jonathan Taylor. The Chargers beat the Titans last week, but they were underwhelming. They will be here. Justin Herbert played well to keep the Chargers on the path to the playoffs.
Pick: Chargers 30, Colts 20